I Will Whinge and Then I Will Not

Butch Howard

I will get this out of my system and start writing in a positive vein as soon as my head heals from pounding on my desk. I have been looking over my Poker Tracker data today for some clues. I don't think I know enough about the game to really evaluate what is there, but it is good to see the common things and use it to yell at myself for doing what I know I should not be doing (Look how much you are losing with one pair you idjit!). Every bit of reinforcement is good, I think.

I do think I am getting somewhat better, even it the bankroll does not show it (and what is the measure if that is not, I must me fooling myself). I am also certain that I am being pounded by an incredible string of bad cards right now. This little stat from the Tracker gives a flavor of it I think.

In these few days of February I have played 1200 hands of No Limit (not many, but that what it is). In the database for those 1200 hands there are 122 hands with known final hands that were not folded before the flop. Of those, 13 were Three Of A Kind. I won a total of 10 out of the 13. Seven went to show down and I Won Money at Show Down 57% of the time.

For those Three of a Kind hands my winnings are Net negative by 24.5 BB. Negative because of one hand. It was folded to me in MP with JJ. I raised to 3BB, the cutoff raises to 5BB, it folds around to me and I reraise to 20BB and get called. Flop comes 789 with two spades, I have no spades. The pot is 41.5BB, I bet 50BB, he calls. The turn is a 3d. I bet 44BB and get called (yeah this should have gone in on the flop). The river is the Jack of Spades to make the straight that takes a 114BB chunk that leaves that negative value in the Three of a Kind row of the database.

So a bit of a whinge there. Likely should have either slowed down on that flop or just jammed given how wild that guy was playing earlier. Anyway, that is just a sample hand. With a few big down hands like that coming along with the many little mistakes I make, my bankroll just does not have a chance.

OK, deep breath, good night's sleep and go again tomorrow.